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Business-Prognosis Readme file
Copyright (C) 1995-1998 Yuri Bykov, All Rights Reserved, RusAPO Pat.No960170
Address: P.O.Box 44, St.Petersburg 195221, Russia
Tel/Fax: +7-812-540-1602,
E-mail: bpr@elant.spb.su
Web:  www.bpr.surnet.ru

Version 1.2 for DOS Protected Mode, English
Also available:
* Version 2.1 for Windows 3.XX/95/NT (see screen shot: Bpr21scr.gif)
* Russian versions: 1.2 for DOS PM; 2.1 for Windows

Release Date: November 2, 1998

Shareware, fully functional, no restrictions, freely distributable.
Please, register your copy. Apply to author for registration information.
Price: For single person: 42 US$
       For companies: 126 US$

Your registration fee is the investment into the future researches 
and program's development. Every registrated user of this version can 
free upgrade it into v2.1 for Windows.

System requirements:
CPU - i386 or higher.
RAM - 1Mb or higher.
Color Graphics - EGA or higher.

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What is Business-Prognosis
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Business-Prognosis is a program designed for solution of risk-planning
tasks, such as: counting the multi-step combinations, estimating the
chances of success of transaction, choosing the best decision in risky
and indefinite situations, when circumstances can't be totally controlled
and both success and failure are possible.

Here is a brief summary of the main features:

- a visual scheme and description of the Risk-plan, formulated on the
  basis of "if...then" rules, each point being described on a separate
  card.
- the possibility of using fuzzy values (intervals, linguistic variables)
  together with numbers.
- programmed methods of expert estimation of event probability.
- two variants of prognosis: with or without taking time into account.
- quality evaluation (risk, profitability, uncertainty), both of the
  planned venture as a whole and of its separate stages.
- the possibility of evaluating visually the quality of a Risk-plan.
- advice on the more significant events or critical points, and an
  evaluation of the stability of the system in the case of error.

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How to run Business-Prognosis
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Copy all files into the separate directory (example: C:\BPR)
and run: Bpr.exe

If you do not familiar with Business-Prognosis, I recommend you
to run firstly the animated overview of the program features.
run: Bprdemo.bat

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List of Business-Prognosis files
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File_id.diz   file id.
Bpr.exe       the main executable
Bprdemo.bat   run the demo-clip
Bpr.hlp       help file
Bpr.pic       picture file
Bprdemo.dat   demo data file
Bprpref.txt   file with fuzzy prefixes
Bprtest.txt   file with external test
Bpr21scr.gif  screen shot of Business-Prognosis 2.1 for Windows
Readme.txt    this file

Rtm.exe       Protected mode system files, distributable
Dpmi16bi.ovl    by Borland no-nonsense license statement

* Program can created files during the work :

BPR.DSK       desktop file
BPR.STT       statistics base

* Data files have the extension:

.CRD

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Business-Prognosis short description
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WHAT DOES THIS PROGRAM DO?

The "Business Prognosis" or "BPR" system calculates the quality indices
(rating) of a planned financial arrangement (or deal), which consists of
a group of interdependent events - typically monetary incomes or costs.

FOR WHOM IS IT INTENDED?

The "BPR" system is intended for the business person or manager, or anyone
who needs to examine alternative variants of a business plan, or make a
decision in an uncertain situation.

This program is understandable for a broad range of users. Using the system
demands minimal knowledge and notions about mathematical terms.  However,
there is a need to learn the principles of the prognosis as applied here.

WHEN IS THIS SYSTEM NEEDED?

The compass of tasks solved by this program is wider than a simple
calculation of financial resources. It is not sensible to use this system,
if you operate by an unchanging plan, and only want to calculate your future
profit.

This system is helpful, however, whenever you intend to make or do something
new, or when there is a risk present in your activities, or when a chance
exists that the planned events may not happen, or when alternative situations
exist such that you need to choose between alternative actions.

The "BPR" system will help you estimate the quality characteristics of the
deal, to look at it from a new point of view, and also to get some new
information about the method of prognosis.  It is an "additional expert",
who will offer advice when you are responsible for a decision.

WHY IS IT DIFFERENT FROM THE KNOWN PROGRAMS FOR BUSINESS?

This program starts a new trend of computer usage in business.  The
prognostic task is essentially different from resource distribution tasks,
net diagrams, and all the more  -  from the tasks of an already conducted
deals  analysis. This program uses psychological aspects of the "person-
computer interface" and the interface is tuned to a particular user. "In-
program intelligence" assumes various variants of data performance, and
defines it so that it is accessible.  Also, the program provides logic for
the control and optimization of events.

DO ANALOGS EXIST?

The "BPR" system is a unique design from the point of view of task wording,
and from the point of view of the methods of its realization.

HOW IS THIS SYSTEM DESIGNED?

The "BPR" system is based on joint logical-intuitive notions about possible
results of the deal and on strict mathematical methods. In the system  are
combined the principles of decision making theory and the methods of fuzzy
algebra. For solution of the task, special mathematical means in the area of
discrete algebra were used.  Task realization in the PC became possible owing
to the use of analytical algorithms instead of numerical ones.  The author's
personally designed symbolic algebra system was used in the program kernel.
Also, unique principles of multi-dimensional recursive algorithms are widely
used.

HOW IS A BUSINESS PROGNOSIS PERFORMED?

The basic assumption is that a person is capable of determining to a certain
degree some planned or future event. However, the prognosis of the possible
outcomes of a group of interdependent events of sufficient complexity, is
often mistaken.

Compose the business plan as a chain of elementary events - monetary costs
or incomes.  As it is only a plan - for every event there is a chance that
it won't happen under any circumstances - by an external factor, by your
partner's decision, or you can make a corresponding decision by yourself.
Try to think over alternative variants, what steps will you take if the
outcome of every event is negative: do you try to find a way to the main
chain or consider the deal terminated?

After that, try to define the supposed characteristics of every event, such
as the amount, beginning date, duration and probability. You have (or may
suppose) any (even a minimum) information about every event -the program
apprehends it in any form. You can define a characteristic accurately or
approximately (as an interval from the minimum value to the maximum) or in
linguistic form, for example: "a little more than $300".

In some cases, when you find it hard to define a characteristic (e.g.
probability) there exist special indirect methods for its definition.
Naturally, the less accurately you define values, the less reliable the
prognosis.

HOW IS THE RATING OF THE PLANNED DEAL CALCULATED?

Imagine that it will not be a single deal, but 100 fully equal deals with
identical starting conditions. Some of them will develop by the  main chain
of events, some by alternative events, and some will terminate
unsuccessfully.  Every result can be characterized by the corresponding
benefit or cost.  Then, as the sought result of one deal  the system
calculates this amount distribution by probability. The system can define it
for every point  (for example: for the full deal, for the beginning or end of
every event, for every date).

Examination of the distribution form gives the possibility to estimate by eye
or calculate the deal dynamics, and also, to compare the quality of several
deals.

This version of the system defines such parameters of the deal:

-maximum and an average by probability of income/cost;

-the degree of risk i.e. the probability of the deal's profitability;

-the degree of indetermination i.e. the insufficiency of your information,
 or the degree of faith in the results;

-the degree of the Deals' profitability, i.e. the part of average profit in
 the total deal amount.

The dynamics of the indices in the process may be displayed as diagrams:

- by events (the estimation of every events influence on the total rating);

- by time (the temporal process).

This diagramatic analysis helps you to find the critical points in your
business plan.

HOW TO USE THIS SYSTEM IN DECISION MAKING ?

Find an event whose occurrence is dependent on your decision alone. If you
decide the event should occur - then its probability will be equal to 1 (or
100%), if not - then 0,  i.e. one alternative variant will be cut. The
program provides a comparison of the two cases.

HOW IS AN EVENTS' LOGIC DEFINED?

It may be supposed that every event has an estimated date of beginning and
can have several positive outcomes with their own probabilities, amounts and
durations. Also every event has one negative outcome (i.e. it will not
happen).

An event may be an initial event or assumes one or more conditions - events
which must happen (or not happen) before the event.  The event logic  is
flexible i.e. one condition can exist for several events, or one event can
assume several conditions. Also, the system registers all contradictory
conditions and may ask you to define the necessity or/and sufficiency of
additional conditions.

In the program events are represented as separate cards which are pushed into
a card index.  When linking events by conditions, you compose the scheme and
description of the planned deal, which is displayed as a flow-chart on the
screen.

HOW ARE FUZZY VALUES DEFINED?

Fuzzy values are defined as an interval from the minimum value to the
maximum, i.e. the linear model of an appertain function is used.  If you
define the fuzzy value in linguistic form, the program will calculate the
corresponding interval by itself.

Taken into account, is that various people have different conceptions of
fuzzy terms. For example, every person has their own concept of the set of
numbers which are included in the set "Far less than 70 days". Thus there
are provided the means of defining by the user's imagination the set of
prefixes, a collection of statistics, and correction of the initial
algorithm.

HOW TO DEFINE AN EVENT PROBABILITY?

The cases when it is possible to define the planned event probability as a
number are sufficiently rare.  But every person always has some intuition
about this probability, and by basing on the intuition the system can define
the conforming interval by itself. Methods provided are:

- testing - you select the more suitable answers from those offered by system
  questions. You can change test or compose the new one - program provides a
  special means for it.

- indirect estimation - system offer to you to define some values, connected
  with probability,  for example - the cost  of the more precise information
  or to compare this event parameters with some other.

- pair comparison - this method is effective for defining the probabilities
  of the events group.

WHAT INFLUENCE HAS THE TEMPORAL FACTOR?

You can compose a prognosis without temporal parameters.  When using time it
is possible to calculate the rating more exactly in those cases where the
beginning date of the event is fuzzy and/or income/cost is going on during a
period.  For example: retail selling of a lot of goods with income evenly
spread over a period.

Also, the program provides the possibility of estimating the relative
reduction of future amounts (taking into account the inflation factor and
the possible increase of money by investments).

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Business-Prognosis Hot Keys
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a) Everywhere:
  F1 - Help
  F9 - Calculator
  Alt-X - Exit

b) Card index
  F2 - Save file
  F3 - Read file
  F6 - Task name
  F8 - Delete card
  F10 - Menu
  Left - Current card to left
  Right - Current card to right; (if current card the last - new card)
  Home - To top of card index
  End - To bottom of card index
  PgUp - Card Up
  Up,Dn - Select current card index from list
  Del - Delete card index from list
  Enter - Open card index
  Ctrl-Up,Ctrl-Dn,Ctrl-Left,Ctrl-Right - Move sheme
  Ctrl-PgUp,Ctrl-PgDn - Turn task description

c) Menu
  Left,Right - Select submenus
  Up,Dn - Select items
  Enter - menu: Open submenu
          submenu: Select item
  Esc: - exit

d) Card
  BkSp - Edit item
  Tab - Select section
  Enter - Select item
  PgDn,Esc - Card down;
Outcomes section
  Ins - New outcome
  Del - Delete outcome
Conditions section
  Ins - New condition
  Del - Delete condition
Date
  Up - calendar
Sum,Period
  Dn - List of prefixes of fuzzy value

e) Read file
  Tab - List <--> Mask
  Up,Dn,Left,Right - Select file
  PgUp,PgDn - Turn the pages
  Home - Top of the list
  End - End of the list
  Enter - Open file
  Esc - Exit

f) Fuzzy prefix, Statistics, Pair comparison
  Up,Dn - Select item
  Enter - Choose prefix
  Esc - Exit

g) External test
  Up,Dn,Left,Right - Select answer
  Enter - choose answer
  Esc - Exit from test

j) Internal test
  BkSp - Previous offer
  Enter - Choose answer
  Esc - Exit from test

i) Calendar
  Up,Dn,Left,Right - select date
  PgDn,PgUp - select year
  Enter - choose date
  Esc - Exit from calendar

k) Help
  F1 - Using Help
  PgDn,PgUp - Turn the pages
  Home - Top of the Help
  End - End of the Help
  Alt-F1 - Hot keys
  Shift-F1 - Contents
  Up,Dn - Select reference
  Enter - To needed item


End of Readme.txt
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